While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. The Cubs released Heyward. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and that's not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. His rookie year was off-the-charts good Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network. Heaney then tossed a middle-middle fastball, hoping for an easy strike. Heyward hasnt shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to 28.3 percent; the MLB average is 29-30 percent). Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. by Retrosheet. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. by Retrosheet. We're asking for your help to make it. But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. For comparisons sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. I think thats in the ballpark. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. But the power was largely absent. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. All he needs to do is stay healthy. When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. Dont look at me. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . Its not even clear this would be a good thing. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. Just how healthy is Heyward? The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. The No. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Support FanGraphs. Im not going to worry about it.. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. Biggio knows right field well. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. Prior to the . Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . It happens. Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. With all this hype Im still trying to figure out why the Braves basically gave this guy away?? All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? "I've talked . The line was rough from lefty starter Austin Gomber on Tuesday against the Rangers four runs on five hits, including a Clint Frazier home run, while recording two outs. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . Because it means Wheeler is now throwing a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a tight slider, a bigger slider (aka the sweeper), a curveball and, occasionally, a changeup. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. Im not all that mad about it. Some call it a sweeper. Heres a powerful triple to center. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. Gift a Membership. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward will get paid. Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. Carpenter upped his power output, and his grounder pull rate jumped from 53% to 68%. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. by Retrosheet. He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. That was awesome, Kapler said. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. 2023 Pre-Season Projections by Retrosheet. Thats just how it goes. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate. by Handedness. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Efficiency. FanGraphs Mugs. Age is the decisive factor here. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. by Handedness, Making Too Much of Too Little Jason Heyward, Effectively Wild Episode 852: 2016 Season Preview Series: Chicago Cubs, Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals, pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play. The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . That has something to do with the Angels deciding to play Trout in the corner outfield from time to time, but it also has a lot to do with Heyward having great range for a corner outfielder. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. FanGraphs currently estimates the cost of a win at around $8 million. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. Good defensive outfielders might simply be a smaller subset of that group overall. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? Dodgers Add Jason Heyward LA signs five-time Gold Glover to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp via Bleacher Report Jason Heyward Cubs Moving On from Heyward Team. So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. by Retrosheet. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. Heres why. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. Forget about everything else. Heres a bomb to right-center. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. . The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015.